The significant Senate primaries have now concluded, and they went out with a bang. The campaigns continue to evolve, moving through the late primaries, and it is becoming clear that Republicans are establishing a political safety net in order to protect their 53-47 chamber majority.
Of the 35 Senate elections on the 2020 elections card, it appears that 13 are highly competitive, 11 of which are already under Republican control. The remaining 22 seats are either safe or definitively leaning to one party or the other. All totaled, Republicans must protect 23 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot.
The Republican political firewall consists of four states, and if GOP candidates win in each, building a majority coalition becomes difficult, but not impossible, for the Democrats to obtain.
The most critical Senate race may be in Alabama. There, Sen. Doug Jones (D) will defend the seat he won in a 2017 special election against retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville, who defeated former U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions in the Republican primary runoff. Even though Democrats hold this seat, Alabama has become the cornerstone of the Senate Republican firewall. It is, therefore, a must-win for the GOP.
If Tuberville is elected, and he is favored with large polling leads and President Trump on the ballot in what will be a top-three state for him, the GOP majority advances to 54.This means that Democrats would need to win a preponderance of the competitive seats remaining on the board.
The other three firewall states are not the ones typically discussed when covering Senate races. In any event, if the Republicans convert Alabama, and Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and Steve Daines (R-Montana) also win their races, the chances of Republicans maintaining their majority dramatically improves—albeit in a smaller dimension. Of these, Maine provides the Democrats with their best conversion opportunity.
If Republicans hold their firewall, then Michigan becomes the Democrats’ No. 1 priority. Sen. Gary Peters (D) holding off a strong challenge from Republican John James is mandatory and, if successful, it means the Democrats have secured their 46th seat. Their top conversion opportunities lie in Arizona, where retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has opened a significant lead, according to most polls, over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R).Because the Colorado electorate has moved definitively left since Sen. Cory Gardner (R) was elected in 2014, the Centennial State is another top Democratic conversion target.
If they win both Arizona and Colorado, the Democratic Senate total rises to 48, but they still remain two seats short of majority control if Joe Biden wins the presidency and three short if Trump is reelected.
By the time Election Day appears on the horizon, we will probably be able to forecast three likely GOP wins. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Texas Sen. John Cornyn should clinch victory, while Kansas Rep. Roger Marshall’s victory his state’s Aug. 4Republican primary means the Sunflower State will likely remain in the GOP camp.
If all of this comes to fruition, the Democrats’ path to taking the chamber will hinge on winning two of the following four contests: the two Georgia seats, North Carolina and South Carolina, where Sen. Lindsey Graham is defending his seat against an unexpectedly strong challenge.
The two Georgia seats are also competitive races, but Republicans have a slight edge in both. Still, Sen. David Perdue (R) cannot be considered more than slight favorites in a state that is undeniably moving to the political center. Nor can appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) or her GOP opponent, U.S. Rep. Doug Collins, who are running in a jungle special election on Nov. 3 that includes candidates from both parties.
North Carolina’s electorate has defeated more U.S. senators than any other state in the modern political era; therefore, the Tar Heel State is always competitive. North Carolinians also tend to vote for a ticket, so chances are that if President Trump carries the state, first-term incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) will likely follow him across the political finish line. If Joe Biden wins North Carolina, it’s just as likely that he will score a national election victory and pull in Senate Democratic nominee Cal Cunningham.
If Democrats hold Alabama or break through in Maine, Iowa or Montana, odds are strong that they will gain control of the Senate. A tough battle is underway regardless of who returns to the Senate victorious, or whose president sits in the White House.
Jim Ellis is president of Ellis Insight, an electoral analysis published in alliance with Weber Merritt Public Affairs. For more information, email xx.
