On Wednesday, July 8, Anirban Basu hosted Construction Executive‘s 2026 Mid-Year Construction Economic Forecast webinar, in which he reviewed the steady growth seen in the first half of the year and how that may poise the industry for continued growth for the next six months. He even reveals a new, never-before-seen slide detailing insight into the construction workforce. View poll results, most quotable moments, a Q&A overview and Basu’s takeaways below; watch the full webinar here.
POLLS
| Which of these is the leading challenge for your company today? | July 2026 | April 2026 |
| Supply chain and/or materials issues | 9% | 10% |
| Skills/worker shortage | 52% | 48% |
| Insufficient demand for construction services | 19% | 25% |
| Availability of financing for projects/project work | 13% | 9% |
| None of the above | 6% | 8% |
| Over the last three months, how has your company’s backlog fared? | July 2026 | April 2026 |
| It has risen considerably | 19% | 14% |
| It has risen slightly | 32% | 26% |
| It has remained about the same | 26% | 24% |
| It has declined slightly | 17% | 27% |
| It has declined considerably | 6% | 8% |
| Where do you expect your company’s profit margins to be a year from now? | July 2026 | April 2026 |
| Substantially higher | 4% | 4% |
| Slightly higher | 29% | 32% |
| About the same | 42% | 35% |
| Slightly lower | 23% | 26% |
| Substantially lower | 3% | 3% |
QUOTES
The AI spending boom is driving disproportionate amount of this growth. (7:56)
The wealthy have gotten wealthier and they spend a lot on services, so it’s no surprise when you break up that consumer spending contribution of growth then services will be head of the class. (25:07)
Construction had jobs at more than twice or roughly twice the rate of the balance of the country. (29:50)
One of the things we want as an industry is for more of our young people—particularly the most ambitious people—to enter the construction trades. (32:32)
I think the industry should really market this kind of statistic [speaking on the fact that those who enrolled in construction trades certificate programs earn roughly $50k more than those who didn’t enroll]. (33:57)
People love Texas [on the 2025 U-Haul Growth Index state rankings]. (36:36)
These states [top southern states in the U-Haul ranking] are associated with really dynamic metropolitan areas. (36:54)
California is exporting people like crazy. (37:47)
Architects are less busy this month than they were last month; last month was abysmal[…]and they have been getting less busy month by month by month. Design work is in retreat. (47:53)
The federal reserve said the U.S. economy will grow 2.2% this year—that’s not bad. (58:05)
This is between 20-45%, 2-3x the norm [on recession probability in 2026]. (59:08)
QUESTIONS
Questions ranged from the war in Iran’s impact on oil prices to the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act one year after it was passed to what happens if data center spending wasn’t supporting the construction economy to the national debt to the state of small public works general contractors and more.
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS
Overall, Basu notes:
- Inflation poised to stage a comeback—tariffs/immigration/war
- Interest rates will be higher for longer
- Many consumers now exhausted financially and circumstances could worsen
- Are asset prices overextended?
- Forecast is for growth in 2026 but there are risks including rising interest rates and falling asset prices
SEE ALSO: ‘WE NEED TO LOWER INTEREST RATES’: ANIRBAN BASU ON 2026 Q1 CONSTRUCTION ECONOMY
