Mick Rich, New Mexico
Outlook
Albuquerque-based contractor and ABC member Mick Rich is the Republican nominee running against Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich, who is seeking his second term in the U.S. Senate.
As a contractor who has built New Mexico’s hospitals, churches, schools and nuclear labs, and who has served as a gubernatorial appointee to the Workforce Solutions Department of the State Labor and Industrial Commission, Rich promises to bring his “hard hat values” to Washington.
He is a staunch supporter of investment in America’s infrastructure and the recently passed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Evaluation
Since former Republican Sen. Pete Domenici retired in 2008, New Mexico’s statewide elections have been decidedly purple—turning to the Democratic party for its senators while conversely electing Republican Gov. Suzanna Martinez twice. Senate race aside, with Martinez term-limited in 2018, two of New Mexico’s three congressional representatives are running to replace her, pitting Republican Steve Pearce (N.M.-2) against Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham (N.M.-1), who is the latest iteration of the Lujan political dynasty in the west. Suffice it to say, New Mexico is set to live up to its wild west roots in November.
Retaining Heinrich’s seat is critical to Democrats’ effort to win the majority in the U.S. Senate, and the incumbent’s current fundraising haul (approximately $4 million) would seem to increase the slope of the “hill” that Rich needs to scale. But with flat population growth and the nation’s sixth lowest median income, New Mexico is not like most other states. So, in a chaotic political environment in which New Mexicans will elect a new governor, three new representatives and a U.S. Senator, the slope of the hill could flatten quickly if Rich stays focused and makes his campaign about who is better experienced to create local jobs and develop the local economy.
Bottom Line
This race should be closer than expected, and maybe even a homegrown upset if Rich can raise the money to stay competitive and on message.
DINO ROSSI, WASHINGTON
Outlook
If Democrats have a chance to regain a majority in the U.S. Congress, they need to count on taking Washington’s 8th congressional seat left open after the announced retirement of Dave Reichert. In a state that was carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, led by popular Democrat Sens. Murray and Cantwell, and Democrat Gov. Inslee, the seat is listed as a “toss up” by Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball.”
Washington’s 8th District—which has been led by Republicans (Rod Chandler, Jennifer Dunn and Dave Reichert) since it was first created in 1983—should stay in the GOP column if State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) continues to raise money, stay on message and, of course, get a bit lucky.
Evaluation
Rossi has a compelling local story. He’s the youngest of seven, the son of a beautician of Irish and Tlingit ancestry and an Italian-American Seattle Public Schools teacher. He was raised in Mountlake Terrace, graduated from Woodway High School in Edmonds and earned a bachelor’s degree from Seattle University in 1982. Since then, Rossi has been a successful local businessman, investor in the Seattle Mariners’ farm team system, and a state senator, but is perhaps best known for gracefully losing a campaign for governor by 133 votes.
Rossi, with his name recognition and slogan of a fiscal conservative with a social conscience, was always the heavy favorite to advance into the general election. After winning the primary on Aug. 7, he and Republicans hoped that the relatively late primary splinters support for the eventual Democratic nominee for at least 90 days.
The battle for the Democratic nomination between pediatrician Kim Shrier, attorney Jason Rittereiser and physician Shannon Hader moved well into August before a nominee was determined. This gave Rossi another competitive advantage, allowing him to consolidate Republican support in the geographically diverse Washington district. A recent Elway poll reflects the strength of Rossi’s candidacy, and perhaps larger political trends, with a 49 percent to 39 percent lead.
Bottom Line
Rossi, who is endorsed by Associated Builders and Contractors, is the best possible Republican candidate to keep the seat, which should prove to be an essential route to either party’s House majority in November.
